The Management of Na-Tech Risk Using Bayesian Network

In the last decades, frequency and severity of Natural-Technological events (i.e., industrial accidents triggered by natural phenomena or Na-Techs) increased. These could be more severe than simple technological because phenomenon cause prevention/mitigation/emergency systems fail. The dynamic assessment risk associated with these is essential for a effective prevention mitigation consequences emergency preparation. main goal this study development fast tool manager. An approach supporting management consequence presented. It based on definition risk-related index, presented in form discrete variable that combines magnitude other factors contributing to worsening Na-Tech. A properly designed Geographical Information System (GIS) allows collection processing territorial information aim create new data quantification Na-Tech index. Bayesian network has been built which efficiently lends including within model multiple elements direct indirect impact distribution levels. By means approach, updating index made. proposed applied an Italian case-study.